Oscar Nomination Predictions 2011

Posted by Amoebite, January 24, 2011 10:17am | Post a Comment
Well, it's finally Awards Season, and three of our most fervent Oscar fans have major opinions about who will be nominated, who should be nominated, and who desperately needs a hair cut before the big day! Read on for Oscar Nomination Predictions from Amoeba employees and admitted Oscar nerds Sally, Brad and Jackie.anne hathaway james franco

Sally: Like last year, this year's hosts are somewhat controversial: Anne Hathaway and James Franco. What do you two think -- how will they do? I am not sure what to think, but I am guessing there will be some musical numbers involved! It'll be interesting for sure, and I'm all for the Academy skewing young. After his Golden Globes hosting/razzing, I am sure the Academy is breathing a sigh of relief they didn't pick Ricky Gervais!

Brad: I love both James Franco and Anne Hathaway so I am pretty excited. It sure is much different then the years of Steve Martin or Billy Crystal. It was very common for them to have 2 or 3 hosts in the 50's & 70's. I am excited they are going back to that format. There really is nobody like Bob Hope or Billy Crystal that can really do what they did, and Franco and Hathaway are not comics so it will be interesting, but they are funny. It will be interesting to see how they play off each other and how it all works out. I do love Ricky Gervais but he was a bit too mean for an awards show. It is ok to make fun of Tom Cruise but you shouldn't make fun of Johnny Depp & Angelina Jolie. But everything he said [while hosting the Golden Globes] was basically true! It was a bit ridiculous to have The Tourist nominated as best comedy! I am hoping for a Freaks and oscarsGeeks reunion on stage at the Oscars. I would love to see Linda Cardellini, Jason Segel, Seth Rogen, Martin Starr, & Busy Phillips all on stage!
Jackie: I’m a fan of the two-host arrangement, and prefer they be of the opposite sex. Did you know last year’s ceremony was supposed to be Tina Fey with Steve Martin? Anne Hathaway & James Franco—I feel they’re respected actors who don’t take themselves too seriously. I don’t expect them to improvise, so the Oscar show writers better have some great stuff.

Sally: Tina Fey would be such a great hostess for the show. Maybe they will get her to do it eventually. What 10 films do you guys think will be nominated for Best Picture for sure? I am guessing Black Swan, Social Network, King's Speech, The Kids Are Alright, The Fighter, Inception, Toy Story 3, maybe Somewhere? What else am I forgetting?

Brad: Yes, I think all the Golden Globe nominated dramas will get an Oscar nomination for Best black swan movie posterPicture for sure. Those would be Social Network, Black Swan, King's Speech, Inception, & The Fighter. And I think those would probably be the 5 if there were still only 5. Although I can't imagine they wouldn't nominate True Grit. That would probably take the spot of The Fighter if there were only 5. So I think 3 of the last 5 will be True Grit, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, for sure. The others I am not so sure about. I would like to see Blue Valentine and Winter's Bone included in the 10. But I am betting it will be The Town & 127 Hours, unless Rabbit Hole and Ghost Writer somehow sneak in there!
Jackie: Here are my predictions:
(1)Animal Kingdom    
(2)Another Year    
(3)Barney’s Version            
(4)Black Swan      
(5)The Fighter      
(7)The King’s Speech      
(8)The Social Network    
(9)Toy Story 3    
(10)True Grit 

Another Year or Barney’s Version could be replaced by any of these: The Town, Winter’s Bone, The Kids Are All Right, Rabbit Hole, or The Way Back.

Sally: Now that we've had a year of having 10 films nominated for Best Picture, what do you guys think about it? Is it a move for the better?
blue valentine
Brad: I think it is a move for the better. I loved that movies like District 9 & Serious Man got to be in the Best Picture race last year. It is interesting that there is no movie like The Blindside that will probably be in the 10 -- no movie for everyone to complain about! Unless something like The Tourist or Burlesque sneaks in there. But that won't happen. I think it probably helps with the ratings and it might help some smaller movies get some more exposure. It would be great for Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole and Winter's Bone or Animal Kingdom to get in to the group of 10 and get some more exposure.
Jackie: I am still a fan of the ten-nominee system. It’s a boost for all--film box office & telecast ratings.  I say, keep it going!

Sally: What were your favorite films of the year? Feel free to name some that have probably no chance of being nominated for anything.
Brad: I just posted my top 12 movies of the year a couple of weeks ago. They are Blue Valentine, Inception, Never Let Me Go, Black Swan, Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World, True Grit, The Fighter, Mesrine, Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, Ghost Writer, and Animal Kingdom. Mesrine is probably about 2 years old but it was my favorite of last year since that is when it finally came out in the theaters. I really loved Never Let Me Go. I really thought it would be an Oscar contendor but nobody is really talking about it. It was too depressing and I guess came out too early at this point, but I really think Carey Mulligan and Andrew Garfield deserve nominations and the film should be nominated too. And I would love more than anything if Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World got a nomination for Best Picture. It really should have gotten a Globe nomination at least. I am hoping it at least gets nominated for visual and sound effects.

Jackie: In no particular order, here are the movies I enjoyed from 2010: The King’s Speech, Heartbreaker, Tangled, Exit Through The Gift Shop, Toy Story 3, True Grit, The Social Network, Flipped, Kick Ass, Standing Ovation, Greenberg, Barney’s Version, Waking Sleeping Beauty, Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World, The Tillman Story, The Ghost Writer, Acts of Violence, N-Secure, Chloe, & Diary of a Wimpy Kid.

Sally: Do you think Inception still stands a chance to be a major winner in any category? It was inceptionreleased so long ago and was largely ignored at the Globes, even though it made so much money and was so well received.
Brad: I think Inception will probably win many of the technical awards, but not much else. Hurt Locker won the big awards last year but Avatar still managed to win Cinematography, Art Direction, & Visual Effects. Inception will probably be the Avatar of this year. It will be nominated for Picture, Director & Original Screenplay but really has no chance of winning those awards. It is looking like Social Network will probably win Best Picture at this point, but I would love for The Fighter or True Grit to win instead.
Jackie: Last year in the late summer, I believed Inception had a strong chance of winning Best Original Screenplay. All that changed after the release of The King’s Speech. I think, just as Brad has mentioned, it will win some of the technical awards. As for the major categories, the Academy simply can’t ignore it & will nominate it for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, & possibly Best Director.

Sally: Who will be nominated for Best Actor and who should be? I am sure Jesse Eisenberg will be deservingly nominated, but Colin Firth seems to have a lock on picking up the Oscar. Funny that he was nominated last year as well. He's an exceptional actor.
Brad: It will probably be a battle between Colin Firth and Jeff Bridges, just like last year, but I think Colin Firth will come out on top this year. The other 3 nominees will probably be Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, & Ryan Gosling, although Robert Duvall or Mark Wahlberg might sneak in there and take Ryan Gosling's place. Those 5 would probably be my favorite of the year as well.
true grit
Jackie: For Best Actor I see:
(1)Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
(2)Jeff Bridges (True Grit)                                     
(3)Jesse Eisenerg (The Social Network)
(4)Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)       
(5)Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version)

Others that may be in there: Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter), Robert Duvall (Get Low), James Franco (127 Hours), or Michael Douglas (Solitary Man).
Sally: What about Best Actress? I thought Annette Bening was great in her part but that The Kids Are Alright was way overrated as a whole (and I had other issues with it as well). I don't want her to win -- my pick is definitely Natalie Portman for Black Swan, my favorite film thusfar of this awards season. Nicole Kidman bores the heck outta me, but she made a movie about a kid dying, so she'll get a nom.
Brad: I think this will be a battle between Annette Bening and Natalie Portman. I feel bad for Annette Bening. She has been nominated for Best Actress twice and lost both times to Hilary Swank. She really deserves to win one of these years. I think Natalie Portman will probably win, though. The other 3 will probably be Jennifer Lawrence, Nicole Kidman, & Michelle Williams, although Tilda Swinton, Lesley Manville, or Julianne Moore could take the place of Michelle Williams. I really want Julianne Moore to win an Oscar one of these years and I think it will happen, just not this year. I really think that Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit should be in this category but she will end up in the supporting category. I also think Carey Mulligan should be in this category for Never Let Me Go, but she won't be.another year
Jackie: For Best Actress I’m guessing:

(1)Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
(2)Nicole Kidman  (Rabbit Hole)                                      
(3)Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
(4)Lesley Manville  (Another Year)       
(5)Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

I feel strongly for only 3 of these; Sally Hawkins (Made In Dagenham) could replace fellow Brit Lesley Manville; Others that could replace Jennifer Lawrence: Diane Lane (Secretariat), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine), Paprika Steen (Applause), or Hilary Swank (Conviction).

Sally: Supporting Actor picks? I am thinking Christian Bale will continue his streak after the Globes -- I feel pretty sure he'll win it, between The Fighter and his body of work overall. Andrew Garfield was very good in The Social Network, so he'll be nominated I am sure. Would be nice to see Mark Ruffalo there, even though I didn't care so much for The Kids Are Alright.
Brad: I agree that Christian Bale will probably win this category. I think it is amazing that he has never even been nominated for an Oscar. He really should have been nominated for American Psycho, The Machinist, & Rescue Dawn. I even loved him in Velvet Goldmine. I am sure a certain someone would have also loved to see him nominated for Little Women! I think the other 4 will be Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Andrew Garfield, & Mark Ruffalo. Or maybe Matt Damon (True Grit) will take Mark Ruffalo's place.
the fighter
Jackie: For Best Supporting Actor:

(1)Christian Bale (The Fighter)
(2)Vincent Cassel (Black Swan)
(3)Matt Damon (True Grit)
(4)Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
(5)Dustin Hoffman (Barney’s Version)

In the supporting roles, for me it’s all about who was the most memorable. I know Jeremy Renner is being pushed here for The Town, but I found his character to be forgettable. We could see Ben Mendelsohn (Animal Kingdom), John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone) or Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) over Vincent Cassel. Other performances I loved last year were Michael Shannon (The Runaways), & Billy Crudup (Eat, Pray, Love).

Sally: Agh, Eat, Pray, Love? And yes, I am a fan of Christian Bale in Little Women, Brad! Moving on, finally, who will be nominated for Best Supporting Actress and who should be? I thought Mila Kunis was surprisingly good in Black Swan. Melissa Leo will get a nomination for The Fighter, as will Helena Bonham Carter for King's Speech. Who else?

Brad: I think Melissa Leo will and should win this category. I know some might think she overacted a bit but I think she was amazing in The Fighter. I would love to see all the sisters get nominated as well. Melissa Leo was amazing in Frozen River last year as well. It seems the two that win the supporting Globe categories often go on to win the Oscar. I think the other 4 will be Amy Adams, Hailee Steinfeld, Helena Bonham Carter, & Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom). Mila Kunis might sneak in and take one of their spots. I love her too and think she was great, but Jacki Weaver was really amazing in Animal Kingdom and I hope she gets nominated!
the king's speech
Jackie: Best Supporting Actress:

(1)Amy Adams (The Fighter)
(2)Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
(3)Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
(4)Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
(5)Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

No real surprises here. Last year Up In The Air received two supporting nominations, so I went with it here for The Fighter. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) could sneak in there to replace Amy Adams or Mila Kunis. Other supporting roles I particularly liked were: Thandie Newton (For Colored Girls), Sandra Oh & Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Rooney Mara (The Social Network), and Minnie Driver (Barney’s Version).

Sally: Aaron Sorkin is pretty much guaranteed to win Best Adapted Screenplay, and I think rightfully so. The dialogue in Social Network was undeniably sharp and impeccably written. Please tell me Sofia Coppola won't be nominated for the emptiness that was Somewhere! And I am sure Lisa Cholodenko and her writing partner Stuart Blumberg will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Who do you guys want to see and/or think will be nominated for the writing awards?

Brad: I think Social Network will for sure win for Adapted Screenplay. It will probably compete against True Grit, Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, & Toy Story 3, but Ghost Writer might get in there. I think The Kids Are Alright will probably win the original screenplay category, although I don't really think it should. I would love Blue Valentine or Black Swan to win this category. The 5 for original screenplay will probably be The Kids Are Alright, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, & The King's Speech. However, I hope that Blue Valentine takes the place of The King's Speech. 
rabbit hole
Jackie:  For Best Adapted Screenplay:

(1)Rabbit Hole
(2)The Social Network
(3)Toy Story 3
(4)True Grit
(5)Winter’s Bone

Other contenders could be 127 Hours or The Town. I enjoyed The Ghost Writer & Barney’s Version, and would be happy to see either of these included.

Best Original Screenplay:

(1)Another Year
(2)Black Swan
(3)The Fighter
(5)The King’s Speech

Several others could replace Black Swan or Another Year: The Kids Are All Right, Casino Jack, Animal Kingdom, or Solitary Man. 

Sally: Best Director will be an interesting battle this year -- I am betting it will be between David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Darren Aronofsky (three of the best guys out there, for sure!), plus David O. Russell for The Fighter and Tom Hooper for The King's Speech.

Brad: I think David Fincher will probably win for Social Network even if it doesn't end up winning Best Picture. The other nominees will probably be Christopher Nolan, Darren Aronofsky, David O. Russell and The Coen Brothers, although Tom Hooper might take the place of the Coen Brothers.
the social network
Jackie: In the Best Director category I predict:

(1)Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
(2)Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
(3)David Fincher (The Social Network)
(4)Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
(5)Christopher Nolan (Inception)

The biggest problem I have is with Christopher Nolan. Without any acting nominees I just don’t think he is as deserving. It sounds similar to James Cameron’s situation last year. Avatar had no actors nominated, but he was given a nod for Best Director--mainly for the epic task of making the picture as a whole! One can say Nolan should be recognized in that regard as well. The big difference is Avatar’s box office power made it impossible not to nominate James Cameron. Inception was the 4th highest grossing film of of 2010—not too shabby! Still, it’s the actors that make the connection to the characters, and in turn connect to us. I felt the acting in Inception was unresponsive. In place of Nolan I would like to see Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right) or Debra Granik (Winter’s Bone), both of whom brought out great performances from their actors.

Sally: I am, as always, pumped about the red carpet just as much as the awards themselves! What pregnancy garb will Natalie Portman swath herself in this time? I hope it doesn't have a garish red rose on it this time! I'm counting on her to be fashion forward. Nicole Kidman always dresses to impress, so I'm curious to see what she comes up with. Anne Hathaway is dressed by the amazing helena bonham carterRachel Zoe so I am dying to see all her costume changes! Sure to be paillette-covered winners! What the hell will Helena Bonham Carter pull this time!? Will she match her shoes or go mismatched like at the Globes? Will her hair block the person sitting behind her at the awards?? And here's hoping Christian Bale cuts his hair before the big night!
Brad: It is always fun to see everyone arrive to the Oscars. I just hope Ryan Seacrest is busy that day. I think Carson Daly didn't do that bad of a job on the red carpet for the Globes. I would love to see somebody like Jimmy Fallon or Chelsea Handler interview stars on the red carpet. Or how about Amy Sedaris and Sarah Silverman interviewing stars?! I can't wait for the Oscars, and the big show is less than 6 weeks away!
Jackie: I enjoy watching all the red carpet festivities. All those sideline reporters shouting out the celebrities for an interview. I prefer seeing movie critics—like Richard Roeper--interview actors & directors. Can we get a funny guy alongside him who knows movies—such as Patton Oswalt? Oh, and have Michael Kors nearby so he can chat about the fashion? That’s my ideal pre-Oscar Show!
Sally: Jackie, you are dead on -- they should invite Michael Kors to comment on the fashions! And Amy Sedaris for the interviews, Brad, you're right! I am so excited for February 27, and the official nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, Tuesday, January 25th at 5am! Thanks for your time, guys! Happy Oscar viewing, everyone!

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Oscars (35), Black Swan (9), Social Network (5), Fighter (1), Animal Kingdom (2), King's Speech (2), Inception (7), True Grit (3), Toy Story 3 (2), Rabbit Hole (1), Blue Valentine (1), Film (177)