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2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions by Brad & Jackie...

Posted by Brad Schelden, January 7, 2013 04:03pm | Post a Comment

argoWe are once again right in the middle of awards season. The Golden Globes are on Sunday, January 13th. The Oscar Nominations usually come out after the Globes are aired, but they are out a bit earlier this year. The Oscars take place on Sunday, February 24th this year. The Oscar Nominations come out this Thursday, the 10th of January. They came out last year on the 24th of January! So this is the time of year when I like to get together with my coworker Jackie and talk about what we think will be nominated. And also what we hope is nominated. I basically like to pretend that we are members of the Academy putting in our votes for the various Oscar categories. If you are feeling nostalgic for last year's Oscars, here is our Oscar Nominations Predictions from 2011. We both did pretty good last year. If you include our possible picks, Jackie beat me in her predictions by 5 picks. She got 45 out of 49 nominations correct. I got 40 out of 49 correct. I never imagined that Extremely Loud would have made it into last year's top 9 Best Picture nominations. But there is always a movie like Crash or Finding Neverland that somehow sneaks into 5 or 10 nominations for Best Picture. I don't think there will be a movie like that this year. There are simply too many good movies this year. But you never know! Jackie and I both see a ton of movies every year and of course have our opinions about what our favorite films and performances were.

Are you ready? Here we go...zero dark thirty

Brad: OK Jackie. Here we are again. Rushing to see a ton of movies in December. I saw Rust & Bone a couple of weeks ago. And saw Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty & Django Unchained during the Christmas week. I just saw Amour last week. I still have not see Life of Pi or The Impossible. But I don't really want to until I have to. So I will wait to see if those two get nominations. I have seen pretty much every other film with acting contenders aside from The Sessions & Hitchcock. But I will also probably only see those if they get nominations. I really do try and see all the best picture nominees before they even get nominated.  I just finished my top ten films of the year list. That list is here. My top ten is Cloud Atlas, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Looper, Moonrise Kingdom, Argo, Amour, Headhunters, The Perks Of Being A Wallflower, & The Cabin In The Woods. There are still a couple films that might have ended up on my top ten but I have not had a chance to see them yet. This is why Jackie is still waiting to post her top ten list. She really wants to see everything before she comes up with that final list. There are some movie that I really enjoyed this year that did not end up in my top ten. I was a big fan of the Christopher Nolan Batman movies. And I did enjoy the The Dark Knight Rises. I also loved a lot of animation this year. Wreck-It Ralph, Brave, Paranorman & Frankenweenie could have all ended up in my top ten. I am just happy that Tim Burton made a good movie again!

OK. Lets get to the nomination predictions. This is how we are going to do it this year. We will pick our 10 or 5 predictions in order of likelihood. And then pick 2 alternates that we think might possibly be nominated. Then we will discuss possible spoilers and films we would like to see get nominated.

Best Picture...
Brad
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Silver Linings Playbook
Life Of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
The Master


strong possibilities:
Beast of the Southern Wild
Cloud Atlas





Silver Linings Playbook
Jackie

Lincoln
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master


strong possibilities:
The Sessions
Anna Karenina


possible spoilers: 
The Impossible
Skyfall
Moonrise Kingdom
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. 

deserves a mention: 
Cloud Atlas

cloud atlasBrad: I think that five of my favorite films of 2012 will be nominated for Best Picture. Zero Dark Thirty and Argo are basically guaranteed to get nominated. And I also think that Django Unchained and Moonrise Kingdom will get in there as long as there are 10 films that make it in. And I really do think that Amour is going to sneak into the Best Picture category. Every once in while a foreign film does sneak into the Best Picture category. Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon was nominated for best foreign film and Best Picture in 2001. It won the Foreign Film category that year. I just saw Amour so it is very much on my mind. It was a powerful amazing film. I think it will obviously get nominated for Best Foreign Film and possibly for actress and actor. But I think if enough people see it. It just might sneak into the Best Picture category. Especially if they see it the weekend before they have to pick their best picture nominees. I am still holding out a glimpse of hope that Cloud Atlas gets nominated. I know that nobody thinks that it will. But it was my favorite film of the year. And I think that enough people saw it they might pick is as their #1 or #2  film of the year. I know Jackie would also love to see it sneak in there. The Master could easily take the 10th spot away from Beasts of the Southern Wild. And there very well might only be 7 or 8 nominees this year. There were 9 nominees last year. Anna Karenina was another one of my favorites of the year. And I would love for it to also sneak in there. Maybe in the place of Life Of Pi. I think The Dark Knight Rises and Skyfall also have a chance of sneaking in there.

Best Director...
ben affleckBrad
Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg/Lincoln
Ben Affleck/Argo
Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained
Ang Lee/Life Of Pi


strong possibilities:
Michael Haneke/Amour
Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master






quentin tarantino
Jackie

Ben Affleck—Argo
Kathryn Bigelow—Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper—Les Miserables
David O. Russell—Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg—Lincoln


strong possibilities:
Quentin Tarantino—Django Unchained
Ang Lee—Life of Pi

possible spoilers: 
Ben Zeitlin—Beasts of the Southern Wild
Michael Haneke—Amour
Paul Thomas Anderson—The Master
                                      
deserves a mention: 
Ben Lewin—The Sessions


michael hanekeBrad: The first three are all pretty much guaranteed to be nominated. Bigelow, Spielberg, Affleck, Tarantino & Lee were also all nominated for best director at the Globes. The Globes don't always match the Oscars in this category but I think they will this year. David O. Russel could sneak in here for Silver Linings Playbook. But I honestly do not understand the hype around this movie. I thought is was just an OK movie. A well made rom-com. I would really love for Silver Linings Playbook to get no nominations this year. It would be a big upset. I know Jackie would be upset! But nothing would make me happier to see Cloud Atlas take its place in the Picture and Director category. I think Michael Haneke also might sneak into this category and take Ang Lee's spot. A foreign director does sometimes sneak into this category. I know a lot of people either loved or hated The Master. It is sort of like this years Tree of LIfe. Terrence Malick did sneak into the director category last year and I could see Paul Thomas Anderson doing that this year. The movie was not one of my favorites. But I would not be surprised to see it show up here. I really think that Tom Hooper is going to be left out of this category.

Best Actor...
daniel day lewisBrad
Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln
Denzel Washington/Flight
John Hawkes/The Sessions
Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix/The Master


strong possibilities:
Jean-Louis Trintignant/Amour
Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook








john hawkes
Jackie

Bradley Cooper—Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis--Lincoln
John Hawkes—The Sessions
Hugh Jackman—Les Miserables
Denzel Washington—Flight


strong possibilities:
Joaquin Phoenix—The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant—Amour


deserves a mention: 
Jack Black—Bernie
Denis Lavant—Holy Motors



Brad: I didn't really enjoy The Master, Les Miserables or Flight. But I recognize that these actors all gave good performances in these movies. I think that Joaquin Phoenix or Hugh Jackman could easily be replaced by Trintignant. He was amazing in Amour. A truly heartbreaking performance. Nothing over the top. Just a restrained beautiful performance. I would really hate Bradley Cooper to show up in this category even though I am usually a fan of his. I just really don't want this movie to get any nominations! Jackie is correct in giving a shout out to Jack Black in Bernie. I really did love Bernie and Jack Black was perfect in that movie.


Jessica ChastainBest Actress...
Brad
Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard/Rust & Bone
Emannuelle Riva/Amour
Naomi Watts/The Impossible


strong possibilities:
Rachel Weisz/Deep Blue Sea
Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild


Quvenzhané Wallis
Jackie

Jessica Chastain—Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence—Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard—Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis—Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts—The Impossible

strong possibilities:
Helen Mirren—Hitchcock
Maggie Smith—Quartet

deserves a mention: 
Halle Berry—Cloud Atlas


marion cotillardBrad: I will try and stop talking about Silver Linings Playbook soon. I really didn't hate the movie. I just don't think it deserves any nominations. Jennifer Lawrence is almost guaranteed to get nominated here. But I am still holding out and hoping that Quvenshane or Rachel Weisz takes her place. But really only Lawrence and Chastain are my solid predictions here. I am hoping that Riva and Cotillard get in there. And Naomi Watts will most likely get in there too. But Emannuelle Riva was just so amazing in Amour. She really deserves to win this category. She might just do it if Chastain and Lawrence divide up the votes of everyone else. I could also see Keira Knightley sneaking into this category. Like most years, there were just not a lot of amazing Oscar type roles for women this year. Helen Mirren could also sneak in here for Hitchcock. She got a SAG and Golden Globe nomination for Hitchcock. But the movie is getting such horrible reviews. I am a huge Hitchcock fan but I have stayed away from this movie. And I think the Academy will also avoid it. I would love for Cloud Atlas to somehow sneak into ever category. And Halle Berry could do it here. But I am sure that she won't. But like Jackie said, she does deserve a mention!

Best Supporting Actor...
leonardo dicaprioBrad
Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln
Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman/The Master

Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained
Alan Arkin/Argo

strong possibilities:
Matthew McConoughey/Magic Mike
Robert Deniro/Silver Linings Playbook







john goodman & alan arkin
Jackie

Alan Arkin—Argo
Robert De Niro—Playbook Silver Linings
Leonardo Di Caprio—Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman—The Master
Tommy Lee Jones—Lincoln

strong possibilities:
Javier Bardem—Skyfall
Christoph Waltz—Django Unchained

possible spoilers:
Russell Crowe or Eddie Redmayne—Les Miserables


Jim Broadbent Cloud AtlasBrad: I really don't know what to think of this category this year. I am positive that Tommy Lee Jones will get nominated. But I am just not sure about the rest. Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio & Samuel L. Jackson were all amazing in Django Unchained. And it would be fun to see all three of them get nominated. Both John Goodman and Alan Arkin were also great in Argo. And I could see either of them get nominated. I also thought John Goodman was great in Flight. John Goodman is just always so amazing. And I am really hoping that someday he will get nominated and win Best Actor or Supporting Actor. I would absolutely love to see any of the dudes from Cloud Atlas get nominated in this category. Jim Broadbent was great. But so was Hugo Weaving, Jim Sturgess, Ben Whishaw, Hugh Grant & Tom Hanks. They all played multiple roles in the movie and it would be nice to see at least one of them get recognized. I could see Matthew McConoughey sneaking in this category for Magic Mike or Killer Joe. I thought Jude Law was fantastic in Anna Karenina and would love to see him get nominated here. But his character was not showy and he was not very likable.

Best Supporting Actress...
ann dowdBrad
Sally Field/Lincoln
Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables

Helen Hunt/The Sessions
Amy Adams/The Master
Nicole Kidman/The Paperboy

strong possibilities:
Maggie Smith/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Ann Dowd/Compliance





sally field
Jackie

Amy Adams—The Master
Sally Field—Lincoln
Anne Hathaway—Les Miserables
Helen Hunt—The Sessions
Maggie Smith—Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

strong possibilities:
Judi Dench—Skyfall
Samantha Barks—Les Miserables

possible Spoilers:
Jackie Weaver—Silver Linings Playbook
               
deserves a mention: 
Shirley MacLaine—Bernie
Moon Bloodgood—The Sessions

               
nicole kidmanBrad: I am positive that both Sally Field and Anne Hathaway will get nominated here. I was sure that Anne Hathaway would win as soon as I saw the trailer for Les Miserables. But now that I have seen the movie I am really not so sure. I was not a fan of the movie. I thought she was one of the great things about it. But she is in the movie for such a very short time. I have not yet seen The Sessions or The Paperboy. But they are both nominated for Golden Globes and SAGs in this category. I would love to see Doona Bae get nominated in this category for Cloud Atlas. But I just don't think it will happen. In my ideal Oscars of having Cloud Atlas sweep I would also put Susan Sarandon in this category for Cloud Atlas. Maggie Smith could very easily take the place of Amy Adams or Nicole Kidman for her work in the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. I have not seen the movie but she is always great in whatever she does. Ann Dowd could also sneak in here if enough people see Compliance. I really liked the movie even though it was difficult to sit through. But she is great in it. I thought Jennifer Ehle was great in Zero Dark Thirty. I would love for her to show up in this category.

Best Original Screenplay
moonrise kingdomBrad
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Django Unchained
Looper


strong possibilities:
The Master
Flight





the master
Jackie

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty

strong possibilities:
Arbitrage
Moonrise Kingdom

possible spoilers: 
The Impossible
Looper



Best Adapted Screenplay
the perks of being a wallflowerBrad
Argo
Lincoln
Life Of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

The Perks of Being A Wallflower

strong possibilities:
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild






les miserables
Jackie

Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

strong possibilities: 
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi

possible spoilers: 
Anna Karenina
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

deserves a mention: 
Cloud Atlas


Brad: I am pretty confident with my picks for original screenplay. But something could easily sneak in here like Arbitrage or Promised Land. I am not so sure about the adapted screenplay category. I would love for Cloud Atlas to get nominated here. I am really hoping that it at least gets a couple nominations. I am hoping it will at least get Art Direction and Score. But I could also see it sneaking into this category. It was a complicated script adapted from a well liked novel. I would seriously love nothing more than for Cloud Atlas to take the place of Silver Linings Playbook in this category. The Perks of Being A Wallflower was one of my favorite movies of the year. And this is really the only category it has a chance of getting a nomination in. It would be well deserved. Anna Karenina, The Sessions or Best Exotic Marigold Hotel could also sneak into this category.

Best Animated Film
wreck-it ralphBrad
Brave
Frankenweenie
Wreck It Ralph
Paranorman
Rise Of the Guardians


strong possibilities:
Hotel Transylvania
The Pirates: Band of Misfits





the painting
Jackie

Wreck-it Ralph
Le Tableau (The Painting)
Brave
Rise of the Guardians
The Rabbi’s Cat

strong possibilities: 
From Up on Poppy Hill
Zarafa

possible spoilers:
Frankenweenie
Hotel Transylvania
ParaNorman

Last year two virtually unknown animated films--A Cat In Paris and Chico & Rita—nabbed nominations.  I’m banking that will happen again.


paranormanBrad: I saw all five of the movies that I am predicting to be nominated here. I don't think Pixar will win this year but I do think they will be nominated. I really liked Brave. And I actually liked all my predictions here except for Rise of the Guardians. Hotel Transylvania could easily take the place of Paranorman as it did for the Golden Globe nominations this year. I could also see The Pirates sneaking in here. This category often surprised me. As Jackie said, a foreign animated film also sometimes gets in here. A Cat In Paris & Chico & Rita were both nominated last year in this category. And The Illusionist was nominated the year before that. The Painting could be that movie that sneaks in there this year. This category can have between three and five nominees. But I think it will have all five this year.

One of my favorite categories is Best Original Score. I am a huge fan of scores. I always notice them in alexandre desplatmovies. And sometimes a score can really make me fall in love with a film. It is seriously one of my favorite categories of the night. I was so happy to see Trent Reznor win for the Social Network in 2011 and Ludovic Bource to win last year for The Artist. I really hope that Cloud Atlas is nominated in this category. It was one of my favorite scores of the year. I think the five nominated will be..Jonny Greenwood/The Master, Reinhold Hell & Johnny Kilmek/Cloud Atlas, Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin/The Beasts of the Southern Wild, John Williams/Lincoln & Alexandre Desplat/Zero Dark Thirty. I could also see Alexandre Desplat getting nominated for Argo if not Zero Dark Thirty. But I did think that the soundtrack to Zero Dark Thirty was more interesting and memorable. I could also see Mychael Danna/Life of Pi, or Dario Marianelli/Anna Karenina getting nominated.

That is our predictions for the Oscar nominations! I will be keeping my fingers crossed for Cloud Atlas!  They come out this Thursday morning 1/10. So check back to see how we did!

Relevant Tags

Zero Dark Thirty (4), Argo (3), Oscars (31), Academy Awards (17), Golden Globes (8), Cloud Atlas (3), Oscar Nominations (2), Oscar Predictions (1), Lincoln (4), Silver Linings Playbook (2)