Welp, I only got 50% this year. In hindsight, after the deluge of promotion for Slumdog Millionaire, I would've probably changed a few of my choices (for music) if playing in an Oscar pool. But since I wasn't losing any money, who cares? Orange is for my prediction; blue is for what I got wrong (or, rather, when the Academy didn't live up to my iron-clad reasoning).

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Richard Jenkins in The Visitor (Overture Films)
• Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon (Universal)
• Sean Penn in Milk (Focus Features)
• Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Josh Brolin in Milk (Focus Features)
• Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt (Miramax)
• Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.)
• Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Angelina Jolie in Changeling (Universal)
• Melissa Leo in Frozen River (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Meryl Streep in Doubt (Miramax)
• Kate Winslet in The Reader (The Weinstein Company)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Amy Adams in Doubt (Miramax)
• Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (The Weinstein Company)
• Viola Davis in Doubt (Miramax)
• Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)

Best animated feature film of the year

• Bolt (Walt Disney) -- Chris Williams and Byron Howard
• Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount) -- John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
• WALL-E (Walt Disney) -- Andrew Stanton

Achievement in art direction

• Changeling (Universal) -- Art Direction: James J. Murakami / Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt / Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- Art Direction: Nathan Crowley / Set Decoration: Peter Lando
• The Duchess (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films) -- Art Direction: Michael Carlin / Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
• Revolutionary Road (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage) -- Art Direction: Kristi Zea / Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Achievement in cinematography

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Claudio Miranda
• Changeling (Universal) -- Tom Stern
• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- Wally Pfister
• The Reader (The Weinstein Company) -- Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Anthony Dod Mantle

Achievement in costume design

• Australia (20th Century Fox) -- Catherine Martin
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Jacqueline West
• The Duchess (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films) -- Michael O'Connor
• Milk (Focus Features) -- Danny Glicker
• Revolutionary Road (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage) -- Albert Wolsky

Achievement in directing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- David Fincher
• Frost/Nixon (Universal) -- Ron Howard
• Milk (Focus Features) -- Gus Van Sant
• The Reader (The Weinstein Company) -- Stephen Daldry
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Danny Boyle

Best documentary feature

• The Betrayal (Nerakhoon) (Cinema Guild) -- Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
• Encounters at the End of the World (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment) -- Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
• The Garden (A Black Valley Films Production) -- Scott Hamilton Kennedy
• Man on Wire (Magnolia Pictures) -- James Marsh and Simon Chinn
• Trouble the Water (Zeitgeist Films) -- Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Best documentary short subject

• The Conscience of Nhem En -- Steven Okazaki
• The Final Inch -- Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant
• Smile Pinki -- Megan Mylan
• The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306 -- Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

Achievement in film editing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- Lee Smith
• Frost/Nixon (Universal) -- Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
• Milk (Focus Features) -- Elliot Graham
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Chris Dickens

Best foreign language film of the year

• The Baader Meinhof Complex A Constantin Film Production - Germany
• The Class (Sony Pictures Classics) A Haut et Court Production - France
• Departures (Regent Releasing) A Departures Film Partners Production - Japan
• Revanche (Janus Films) A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production - Austria
• Waltz with Bashir (Sony Pictures Classics) A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production - Israel

Achievement in makeup

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Greg Cannom
• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan
• Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) -- Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Alexandre Desplat
• Defiance (Paramount Vantage) -- James Newton Howard
• Milk (Focus Features) -- Danny Elfman
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- A.R. Rahman
• WALL-E (Walt Disney) -- Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

• "Down to Earth" from WALL-E (Walt Disney) -- Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman / Lyric by Peter Gabriel
• Jai Ho from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight) -- Music by A.R. Rahman / Lyric by Gulzar
• O Saya from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight) -- Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• Frost/Nixon (Universal) -- Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers
• Milk (Focus Features) -- Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers
• The Reader (The Weinstein Company) -- Nominees to be determined
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film

• La Maison en Petits Cubes -- Kunio Kato
• Lavatory - Lovestory -- Konstantin Bronzit
• Oktapodi (Talantis Films) -- Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
• Presto (Walt Disney) -- Doug Sweetland
• This Way Up -- Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film

• Auf der Strecke (On the Line) (Hamburg Shortfilmagency) -- Reto Caffi
• Manon on the Asphalt (La Luna Productions) -- Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont
• New Boy (Network Ireland Television) -- Steph Green and Tamara Anghie
• The Pig -- Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh
• Spielzeugland (Toyland) -- Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing

• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- Richard King
• Iron Man (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment) -- Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Tom Sayers
• WALL-E (Walt Disney) -- Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
• Wanted (Universal) -- Wylie Stateman

Achievement in sound mixing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
• WALL-E (Walt Disney) -- Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
• Wanted (Universal) -- Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Achievement in visual effects

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
• The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) -- Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
• Iron Man (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment) -- John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Adapted screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.) -- Screenplay by Eric Roth / Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
• Doubt (Miramax) -- Written by John Patrick Shanley
• Frost/Nixon (Universal) -- Screenplay by Peter Morgan
• The Reader (The Weinstein Company) -- Screenplay by David Hare
• Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) -- Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Original screenplay

• Frozen River (Sony Pictures Classics) -- Written by Courtney Hunt
• Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) -- Written by Mike Leigh
• In Bruges (Focus Features) -- Written by Martin McDonagh
• Milk (Focus Features) -- Written by Dustin Lance Black
• WALL-E (Walt Disney) -- Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon / Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

Another reason to love two time Oscar winner Mel Gibson:

As a final fuck you to the outgoing President, the Academy has decided to do the near exact opposite of the facts that I so kindly placed before it in this here blog. Hey Hollywood, don't blame all Texans for that family of carbetbaggers! My predictions are in orange -- the "hook 'em horns of Satan" color -- followed by my attempts at psychoanalyzing the voters.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Richard Jenkins in The Visitor (Overture Films)
• Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon (Universal)
• Sean Penn in Milk (Focus Features)
• Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)

Langella's been around a long time without an Oscar nod, but mostly in crap that goes under the Academy's radar. His best chance is that Ron Howard specializes in the liberal schmaltz it loves, but he's not playing a murdered gay man. Ditto for Jenkins, and he doesn't even have Howard. Then there were three. This is a tough one: oppressed minority in a biopic versus pretty actor looking ugly with special effects versus Hollywood reincarnation myth. Penn's been rewarded before, true, but these are ideological times and he's an ideological actor in an ideological film. I'm going with the anti-Prop 8 vote.

Welp, I got 67% (that's 16 out of 24) right.  Red is for what I got right, and blue what I got wrong .

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal)
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in "Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

I'm sick as all hell, grumpy, and my mind ain't much good for nothing but thinking about the Oscars.  So here are my choices (at least, who I think will win in terms of my model Academy voter).  And, in case you're wondering, here's how the nominees are chosen and then voted for.  My selections are in red, with my reasoning in italics.

Performance by an actor in a leading role:
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

There's no competition here: the juiciest part being played by the juiciest actor and in a film that's anti-capitalist and anti-fundamentalist.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)