2011 Oscar Nomination Predictions by Brad & Jackie...

Posted by Brad Schelden, January 22, 2012 09:41pm | Post a Comment
We are once again right in the middle of awards season. The Golden Globes were this last weekend. And the Oscars are about 5 weeks away. The Oscar Nominations come out this Tuesday the 24th of January. So this is the time of year when I like to get together with my coworker Jackie and talk about what we think will be nominated. What we hope is nominated. I basically like to pretend that we are members of the Academy putting in our votes for the various Oscar categories. We are sadly without our moderator Miss Ess from the last couple of years. If you are feeling nostalgic for last years Oscars, here is our Oscar nomination predictions for 2010 blog from last year. So it will be just Jackie and I this year. We both see a ton of movies every year and of course have our opinions about what are favorite films and performances were.

Are you ready. Here we go...

Jackie! Are you ready for this? I seriously can't believe it is already time for this. I have been trying to catch up the last couple of weeks and see all the movies that I need to see. I am still a bit behind. But I saw Tin Tin on Sunday and just saw Young Adult last week. So I am almost there. We should start off first by talking about the host. I was happy that Brett Ratner resigned from the show. I was really not looking forward to a show produced by him. I had come to accept Eddie Murphy as the host. But after he dropped out too I was really hoping for some interesting choices. I think the show should always be hosted by a comedian. Last year just didn't really work. I still think Tina Fey and Jimmy Fallon would be great together. But we are getting Billy Crystal this year. I actually think he did a great job in years past as the host. So I think it will be a fun show again. Maybe not as edgy as I had hoped. But it is the Oscars. I expect him to come out on a horse wearing a Hawaiian Shirt with a baseball bat and maybe a dragon tattoo. Maybe dressed up as a maid or a bridesmaid. But maybe he will surprise us all with some amazing material and jokes. I am looking forward to the show as always. Regardless of who the host is. Jackie...Thoughts on the host. Are you hoping for a When Harry Met Sally reunion on stage. Or maybe he could come out with Carol Kane in their makeup from The Princess Bride.

the artistJackie:
Brett Ratner producing the show didn't bother me (his segment in New York, I Love You was very enjoyable); I was skeptical about his choice of Eddie Murphy as host--who I believe would have been rather lazy.  I'm happy to see Billy Crystal again.  What more can I say?  When I think of my favorite Oscar shows, most of them are with Billy & the opening montages & monologues. 

Lets get on to the Oscar predictions. We might as well start with Best Picture. There have been 10 nominees the last couple of years. Which I don't mind. But I think I might like what they are doing this year better. There will be between 5 and 10 this year depending on how many different pictures get picked as #1 by the different members of the Academy. I am really keeping my fingers crossed for Drive. It remains one of my favorites of the year and I would love to see it sneak in there. I just posted my
top ten movies of 2011 which are The Artist, Drive, The Skin I Live In, Beginners, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, Midnight In Paris, Weekend, Shame, & the descendantsAttack The Block. Although I just saw Young Adult last night. And I think it might have sneaked in my top ten if I had seen it earlier. These are not necessarily the ten movies that I would pick for best picture though. The Descendants and The Artist just won the best picture Golden Globe for Drama and Comedy/Musical. I can guarantee you that those two films will be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. The Social Network and The Kids Are Alright both won the Globes last year and both went on to be nominated. But I doubt The Kids Are Alright would be nominated under this years rules. I just don't think enough people picked it as their #1 film. The other four dramas nominated for Golden Globes last year went on to be nominated for the Oscar. However the other four comedies did not.  This is usually the case. All five Golden Globes dramas get nominated for the Oscar. And sometimes the  winner of the comedy category goes on to the Oscars. The Hangover won the Golden Globe two years ago. But even with 10 films nominated for the best picture Oscar two years go, it still didn't get picked. So that means the best picture nominees will most likely be The Artist, The Descendants, War Horse, Hugo, The Help, & Moneyball. The Ides of March did sneak into a sixth spot for the Globes Drama. But I doubt it will at the Oscars. I think there will probably be 7 nominees this year. And I predict that Midnight In Paris will be the 7th nominee. Although I would love to see Drive in there. And would not be surprised to see Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, Tree of Life, or Bridesmaids sneak in there. If there had to be ten then I think that Tree of Life, Dragon Tattoo, and Drive would all be in the final 10. I think that The Artist will win the best picture category.  

Here are my nominee predictions for Best Picture, in order of confidence:
                 1-The Artist
                 2-The Descendants
                 4-The Help
                 5-Midnight In Paris
                 6-War Horse
                 7-The Tree of Life
                 9-The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
                10-Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close
                I could also see any of these possibly making the cut further down the list: The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Iron Lady, Shame, or Carnage.

the helpBrad:
It seems that everyone knew a year ago that the best actress race would be between Glenn Close and Meryl Streep. Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams walked away with the Golden Globes this year. And we all know they will both be nominated for Best Actress. Natalie Portman and Annette Bening won the globes last year. And Natalie went on to win the Oscar. Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock won the Globes in 2010. And Sandra went on to win the Oscar.
I think Viola Davis will take the 4th spot for best actress. Halle Berry did win the Oscar in 2002 without winning the Globe so I think Viola still has a chance of winning. And it looks like either Viola or Meryl will win this one. I think Tilda Swinton will take the last spot for We Need To Talk About Kevin. But I would love to see Charlize Theron for Young Adult and Rooney Mara for Girl With The Dragon Tatoo in this group. Those were two of my favorite performances this year. So I think the nominees with my Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Glenn Close, Viola Davis, & Tilda Swinton. I predict that Meryl Streep wins this year.

For Best Actress nominees, I predict:
                Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
                Viola Davis (The Help)
                Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
                Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin)
                Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)

               No real surprises here.  Streep's portrayal was as close to the real person as I've seen.  Berenice Bejo (The Artist) could easily qualify for lead actress, but I think they're pushing her for the supporting role.  There's still Jodie Foster or Kate Winslet for Carnage.

George Clooney and Jean Dujardin won the globes for acting this year. I really think Jean Dujardin was shamethe best Actor this year. I think he will win this one. And I hope that he does. George will most certainly get nominated this year as well. I still do not get all the fuss about Moneyball this year. But I predict that Brad Pitt will get nominated for this film. I am also thinking Michael Fassbender will be nominated for Shame. This was one of my favorite performances of the year. I think that Michael will walk away with the Oscar one of these years. But not this year. I really hope that Gary Oldman sneaks into the fifth spot for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. But I think that Leonardo DiCaprio will be the fifth nominee for J. Edgar. I was not a fan of the movie but I think people are a fan of his performance. I would also love to see Ryan Gosling sneak into this category for Drive. But it will probably not happen. So I think the nominees with be George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Brad Pitt Michael Fassbender, & Leonardo DiCaprio. I think that Jean will win.

Nominees for Best Actor, I predict:
                  Demian Bechir (A Better Life)
                  George Clooney (The Descendants)
                  Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
                  Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
                  Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

         I'm conflicted over Leonardo DiCaprio, because J. Edgar was not a well-received film; but I believe Academy voters love biopic performances where an actor ages.  Michael Fassbender may have a slim chance with A Dangerous Method; but his greater performance, in Shame, might have been a bit too cold for most viewers.  Gary Oldman might be a surprise for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, but Bechir's SAG nomination convinces me he'll get named.  Ryan Gosling (Drive), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) & Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) are deserving of honorable mentions.

Octavia Spencer walked away with the Best Supporting Actress Globe for the Help. I am sure she will be nominated for the Oscar and will probably win. Jessica Chastain will also be nominated for The Help. And I think Berenice Bejo will be nominated for The Artist. Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs and Shailene Woodley  for The Descendants were the other two globe nominees and will most likely be the last two oscar nominees. One of them dressed in drag and the other one cried under water! But I do think that Melissa McCarthy will sneak into this category and take the place of Janet McTeer. Christopher Plummer won the Best Supporting Actor Globe for The Beginners. I think he should and will win the Oscar. I think that Jonah Hill will be nominated for Moneyball and Albert Brooks will be nominated for Drive. I think Kenneth Branagh will take the fourth place for My Week With Marilyn. Viggo Mortensen was nominated for beginnersthe globe for supporting actor. And he might take the fifth nomination spot. But I would love to see Patton Oswalt take this spot for his performance in Young Adult and I think he might. It seems that the actor and actress to win the supporting globes also always win the Oscars. It happened with Christain Bale and Melissa Leo last year. And it happened with Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz in 2010. Heath Ledger and Kate Winslet won the globes in 2009. Heath went on to win the supporting actor oscar. And Kate Winslet went on to win the Best Actress oscar for The Reader even though she won the Supporting Actress Globe. Penelope Cruz won the Supporting Actress Oscar that year. So my Supporting Actress predictions are Octavia Spencer, Jessica Chastain, Berenice Bejo, Melissa McCarthy, & Shailene Woodley. I think the Supporting Actors will be Christopher Plummer, Jonah Hill, Albert Brooks, Kenneth Branagh, and Patton Oswalt.

Nominee predictions for Best Supporting Actor
                         Kenneth Brannagh (My Week With Marilyn)
                         Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
                         Nick Nolte (Warrior)
                         Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
I can't confidently name the fifth! I could see any of these on the list:
                       Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
                       Albert Brooks (Drive)
                       Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
                       Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
                       Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
                       Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
      Also, two young actors could play spoiler: Asa Butterfield (Hugo) and Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close).  Other memorable standouts: Adrian Brody (Midnight In Paris) and Sacha Baron Cohen (Hugo).
       Nominee predictions for Best Supporting Actress:              
                      Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
                      Jessica Chastain (The Help)
                      Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
                      Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
                      Octavia Spencer (The Help)

            There's a chance that Carey Mulligan might get in there for her great performance in Shame, possibly over Melissa McCarthy or Janet McTeer. 

Martin Scorcese won the globe for Hugo for Best Directing. This is another movie that I think was overrated. I just didn't like it and found it boring and tedious. But I think he has a good chance of winning the Oscar as well. But I think The Artist might sweep the Oscars and take this category as well. I think the best director nominees will be Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Martin Scorcese for Hugo, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris, and David Fincher for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. I think Nicolas Winding Refn should be nominated for Drive. But I don't think he will be. Steven Spielberg might get nominated for War Horse. Terrence Malick might get nominated for Tree of Life.

Nominee Predictions for Best Director:
                      Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris)
                      Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
                      Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
                      Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
                      Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

             I can't see Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close) gaining momentum at this point.  Spielberg didn't get a Director's Guild nomination, so I could see David Fincher replacing him.  I chose Spielberg because I felt Academy voters may favor the story of War Horse over the dark material in Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Woody Allen won the screenplay category for the Globes. I am sure Midnight In Paris will get nominated midnightinparisfor Original Screenplay along with The Artist, Bridesmaids & Young Adult. I think 50/50 will take the fifth spot. I think that The Descendants and Moneyball will both get nominated for Adapted Screenplay. Hugo and The Help will also probably be nominated. I think Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy will probably sneak into the fifth spot. Although it might be Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, We Need To Talk About Kevin or War Horse. I think that The Artist will win the Original Screenplay and The Descendants will win Adapted Screenplay. Diablo Cody won the Oscar in 2007 for Juno so I don't think she will win again.


Jackie: Nominee Predictions for Original Screenplay:
                 Midnight In Paris
              The Artist
              Win Win
              Young Adult

              Could also see any of these in place of either
              Young Adult or Bridesmaids:
              The Tree Of Life, 50/50
              A Separation, Beginners
              Martha Marcy May Marlene or Shame

         Nominee Predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:
               The Descendants
               The Help
               The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Others that could bump Dragon Tattoo:
                Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
                War Horse
                The Ides of March

Brad:adventures of tintin
The Adventures of Tintin won the globe for best animated feature this year. I think it will do the same at the oscars. It is a big epic animated fim by Steven Spielberg. I think it goes on a bit too long. But I did enjoy it. This is one of those years where Pixar will probably not win. Toy Story 3 did win last year. But I don't think enough people cared about Cars 2. And I think Brave will win next year. The other nominess will probably be Rango & Puss In Boots. Arthur Christmas was the fifth globe nominee but I think there will only be 3 or 4 oscar nominated animated films.

Nominee Predictions for Best Animated Feature (2-5 could be nominated)      
                      1. Rango
                      2. Arthur Christmas
                      3. Puss In Boots
                      4. Rio
                      5. Adventures of Tintin

               Other titles that may come up:
                     Kung Fu Panda 2
                     Chico & Rita
                     Cars 2
                     Gnomeo & Juliet

OK. That is our predictions for the oscar nominations. See how we did on Tuesday Morning. The Oscars take place on Sunday February 26th.

Relevant Tags

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (3), Oscars (35), Golden Globes (9), The Descendants (3), The Arist (1), Beginners (2), Drive (13), The Help (3), Midnight In Paris (2)